Jon Peddie WM9, MPEG-4, H-264 and MHP

New and Opinionated Views from Jon Peddie Associates

by Kathleen Maher : Editor-In-Chief of Jon Peddie's TechWatch

* Standards a go go: WM9, MPEG-4, H.264
* 1-2-3 don't forget about MHP
* ATI's transformation is well underway - millions of Xilleons?
* Take our survey on multi-monitor use and win a prize -- www.jonpeddie.com

In case you haven't gotten the memo - the recovery has been delayed. While we're waiting, we thought we'd mosey on over to Holland to check out the state of DTV in Europe and get a taste of what we might be seeing in North America around NAB time. It was a good thing to do - cheered us right up because it reminded us of one thing. There are a lot of TVs in the world and they are going to go digital by hook or crook. Oops sorry, we don't say crook these days in the cable business, too sensitive. When companies like Adelphia crash, they pull down a bunch of other companies with them people who build boxes, head-end equipment, billing software, and even competitors who are suddenly getting the askance glances from standing downwind of the smell. We also saw the effect of the interactive TV contraction at IBC as companies opted for smaller booths so they could lick their wounds with a little more privacy.

Don't you miss irrational exuberance? Instead, this is the year of cautious optimism and even that seems a little irrational sometimes.

Recently we gave Microsoft a ration of abuse about Passport and Palladium and various security and convenience features that seem to hand over control to Microsoft - it's fun, it's expected, and no one seems to mind except maybe the occasional analyst who thinks we ought to be a little more rigorous in our analysis. Bill Gates seems to handle it okay, at least he didn't complain. And you know what? There's a flip side to all this and that's that big powerful companies with bags of money, the drive, and the ability to innovate in times of recession are also the ones that are pulling the wagon when it gets slow.

Nothing greases the wheels like money and lately, Microsoft has been throwing a lot of green around in support of Windows Media 9. They had a huge launch in L.A., and a couple of weeks later they took the show on the road to Amsterdam and IBC where they got a warm reception. Microsoft has offered broadcasters, content holders, box builders, and chip makers a consistent method of distributing content, playing content and protecting content.

At the same time, MPEG-4 has finally gotten to the starting gate, years after the spec had been frozen. Why? Because the various entities were haggling over money in working out licensing issues. So MPEG-4 arrives a tad late and just under the wheels of the Microsoft monster truck. But, as Jonathan Fram, Envivio's CEO wisely said on the subject, MPEG-4 is a living codec. And one of the tasks on the drawing board is an improved version of MPEG-4 called MPEG-4 Part 10, or H.264. Having learned from their mistakes the teams are working on licensing even as they finalize the new codec and programmable DSP makers TI and Equator say their chips can already handle H.264 as well as WM9.

Set-top box manufacturer Pace has committed to streaming video from the get go and they've built their latest boxes with the Equator BSP-15 to ensure the things can handle whatever codec comes streaming down the line be it WM9, MPEG-4, H.264 or the next big thing.

So, maybe Microsoft is right when they say WM9 can beat MPEG-4 and maybe the forces behind H.264 are right when they say they'll regain lost ground with their improvements on MPEG-4. And maybe it doesn't matter as long as there is progress and there are broad, and different coalitions at work to balance each other out and keep each other honest. The really great thing about the digital media industry is that there is already plenty of content, there is plenty of demand, and there is a long way to go before all the problems have been solved. Also in this issue we note that MHP otherwise known as the Multimedia Home Platform is getting its real world launch. The standards-based MHP will let application developers create interactive products that will work the same across any MHP compliant box. It supports MPEG-2, MPEG-4, Java, XML - all the letters. Philips is the platform's most ardent supporter and it has also gotten a leg-up from the OpenCable group in the U.S. There is hope that it will spur the slow-moving open cable initiative that will let users buy boxes in stores to work on any system.

And speaking of boxes, it's easy to forget sometimes that ATI has become considerably more than a 3D graphics chip supplier but last week at IBC, the company put its new acquisition NxtWave out front and center as it explained to the broadcast industry that ATI now has an end-to-end solution for set-top boxes. They've also got major-league wins with Pace and with Scientific-Atlanta. Xilleons for everyone.

We've got a new market Watch, JPR's quarterly report on the PC industry, is available with a full subscription to Tech Watch or as a stand-alone product. We try to bring a little predictability to this season of surprises, and if you're selling into the computer market you will want to have an idea of what the rest of the year will bring. Well, don't you?

We have a lot more to tell you. The latest Tech Watch is available online at http://www.jonpeddie.com. This week as should be obvious, we cover IBC and we also have a guest article from CAD watcher Ralph Grabowski on SolidWorks, news from AMD, an look at the fortunes of set-top box rivals Pace and Scientific-Atlanta and a round up of the news that happens when we are doing other things.

And, oh hey about that survey. We want to know if you use multiple monitors. You do? Why? You don't? Why not? Give us a minute and it'll make us all a little bit smarter.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For information about our services call us at 415 435 9368 or write jon@jonpeddie.com <mailto:jon@jonpeddie.com>. Check us out at JonPeddie.com - we've got news, opinions and more information about our services and publications. As always if you have any questions or wish to be left off News list please contact Robert Dow @ robert@jonpeddie.com.

comments or problems - webmaster